League

Playoff odds, strength of schedule, point differential, and the scoring trend for all 32 clubs.

Games

107

Played games

Off EPA/play

+0.01

League average, scrimmage plays

Success rate

43.6%

Plays with positive EPA

Best record

SF 6–1

+58 point diff

Who moved

What the latest results changed: ESPN odds week 6 to week 7, and schedule verdicts that flipped this week.

Playoff odds up

Playoff odds down

Biggest title bump

New verdicts

Red turned schedule merchant, green earned it.

Playoff odds

ESPN’s Football Power Index, ranked, with each club’s line since the preseason. Spot who spiked after a soft stretch. Select a club to open its dashboard.

Week 8 slate

Every game ranked by trap potential: how likely the favorite is to stumble against what its record and odds say. Open a game to see why it matters.

  • Favorite KC at 56% (ESPN)Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ETNext week KC plays NYJ
    • +20KC’s schedule so far grades 23 (50 is average): the record has had help.
    • +15DEN has played a 78-graded slate, so its record undersells it.
    • +11Per play these two are close: KC +0.15 net EPA, DEN 0.00.
    • +10KC is favored on the road.
    • +10KC’s wins grade as schedule-merchant wins.
    KC
    DEN
    Net EPA
    +0.15
    0.00
    Slate so far
    23
    78
How it’s measured
Only the favorite can be trapped, so every input reads from its side. Out of 100: 30 points when the underdog’s net EPA/play (offense minus defense) is close to the favorite’s, 20 when the favorite’s schedule so far grades soft, 15 when the underdog’s grades hard, 15 when the favorite plays a top-eight club by net EPA the week after, 10 for a road favorite, and 10 when its wins grade as schedule-merchant wins. A near coin flip (under 55%) is a close game, not a trap, and a heavy favorite (over 85%) rarely falls, so both are scaled down. The favorite is ESPN’s pick when ESPN has the game, then the betting line, then net EPA with home field.

Strength of schedule

Who each club has played, who it has left, and how good the clubs it beat are. Separates the real contenders from the schedule merchants.

Opponents rated through week 7. Select a club to open its dashboard.

ClubPlayedLeftWinsShare
925870
783560
755070
704955
683763
626980
6066—
575358
564148
535678
535251
51960
504321
506649
494846
493049
492366
484950
486259
466527
464069
454136
425043
413435
406138
395942
384051
356833
336936
317647
236533
233728
How it’s measured
Every number here is the same strength-of-schedule measure. Each game scores its opponent out of 100 (offensive and defensive EPA rank, record, and record against winning teams, with home games counted lighter). Played and Left average a club’s games so far and still to come; Strength of wins averages only the games it won. Each is graded against the league: 50 is average, 15 points one standard deviation, and the small rank is 1st for the hardest. On Played and Left, red is a hard slate and green an easy one; on Strength of wins, green is a set of good wins. SOV is strength of victory, the NFL tiebreaker: the beaten clubs’ combined record. Under 38, or three-plus wins over clubs a combined .350 or worse with none over .500, reads as a schedule merchant; 62 and up with the record to back it (a .450 SOV or two wins over .500 clubs) as earned. Opponents are rated as they stand now, not on game day, and a verdict waits for two wins.

Head to head

Two clubs on the same numbers. The better side of each row lights up; slate left counts the easier finish as the edge.

San Francisco 49ers7
Buffalo Bills3
of 10SF edge
  • 6–1Record5–1
  • +58Point diff+26
  • +0.177 · 2ndOff EPA/play+0.204 · 1st
  • −0.043 · 9thDef EPA/play+0.128 · 29th
  • 38 · 27th hardestSlate played48 · 19th hardest
  • 51 · SOV .412Strength of wins59 · SOV .364
  • 40 · 25th hardestSlate left62 · 9th hardest
  • +5.9FPI+4.3
  • 99%Playoff odds96%
  • 23%Title odds11%

Point differential

Best to worst, in club colors. Select a club to open its dashboard.

Scoring by week

Average combined points per game